Business Research -Data, variables and hypotheses Essay

Business Research -Data, variables and hypotheses - Essay Example Overtime allowances complement these benefits. Supplementing the workloads of employees with assistance from trained interns, who are enthusiastic to learn work builds employee morale. In USA, it has been found that 70% of workplaces face employee morale issues due to work overloads ((PR Newswire Association LLC, 2011). Stiff deadlines and workloads cause occupational stress to the staff of an organisation. When the paid leaves are limited, employees opt for unpaid time-offs in order to cope with the stress. Employee performances affect the profit levels of the organisation, as high performance levels guarantee organisational growth, along with all the other factors, as they are the people who deliver the actual work undertaken by their firm. It is human nature to expect compensation commensurate with employee performance, given the employee tenure and contribution to the organisation. The performance-based component of salary of employees is one such acknowledgement. When the quality of work performed is high and work tenure is running overtime, as in GrowthTech, employees tend to belittle their salaries and feel underpaid. The market rates and salaries offered by other firms are the other factors that contribute to feeling underpaid. This results in positive perception towards outside firms, when compared to his employer. PR Newswire Association LLC, Initials. (2011, May 17). Staff retention, employee morale, workloads, and health care costs are top workforce issues for state and local governments. Insurance News Net, Retrieved from http://www.insurancenewsnet.com/

Thomas Hobbes Leviathan Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1500 words

Thomas Hobbes Leviathan - Essay Example This essay stresses that coping with the state of nature for both the artificial and natural human requires adaptability in coping with interactional challenges, in addition to moral challenges. Nature is considered sovereign as it is the art of God’s creation and governing of the world. Interaction with nature, therefore, requires some adaptability and coping skills for both the natural and artificial man. The artificial and the natural humans must adhere to certain conditions provided by the natural law for easier interaction and/or coping. Hobbes describes the artificial human or commonwealth as sovereign over the natural man, contrary to the fact that the natural man is considered sovereign over other artificial things. This paper makes a conclusion that the statement is misguiding due to the clear relationship between the divine, civil and natural laws. The natural law is all-inclusive to the human species, with God as the sovereign power or authority. The moral law of nature provides the human with character transformation and adaptability, happiness, virtues, and the imperatives and moral obligation of good and evil, for the good of the human. Hence, there is a clear difference and distinction between natural justice and the legal conventions of both the natural and artificial man. The critics to Hobbes’ work, such as Gauthier, are a clear indication of the discrepancies and contradictions in his work, and lack reliable evidence to support his conclusions and perceptions on the natural law.

Effect of Exports on Growth

Effect of Exports on Growth 1. Introduction 1.1. Theoretical Framework The general idea of free trade agreement of growth was developed in advocacy of free trade based on neoclassical trade theory (Solow, 1956) and from recent endogenous growth theory (Romer P. , 1990). The support for free trade is drawn from Ricardian principles of comparative advantage (Viner, 1937). Similar idea is drawn from the notion of perfect competition and the believe of neoclassical economists who argues on the importance of efficient capital allocation due to free trade (Krugman, 1986; Corden W. , 1974). The phenomenon of free trade came under severe scrutiny in the face of Great Depression. Hence, theoretical foundations of ‘optimum tariff were developed in support of protection (Johnson, 1950; Kaldor, 1940). Johnson (1958, 1971) advocated trade protection in three groups in his classical exposition. They are the economic arguments, non-economic arguments and non-arguments. Economic arguments raise infant industry argument, optimal tariff argument and correction of domestic market distortions, while non-economic arguments emphasize on self-sufficiency for domestic economy. Non-arguments attempt to resolve balance of payment distortions through trade protection. Johnson concluded that ‘optimal tariff protection is the only valid argument, while in other cases such arguments will only inflict distortions. The neoclassical economists refute the notion of protection as an alternative, as this would result in intra-industry effects. The increased barrier to entry would make domestic traders to engage in monopolistic competition, while small enterprises will be left inefficient. Intra-industry effects are the source to welfare loss (Tybout J. D., 1991). In addition, Bhagwati(1988) and Kruger(1974), raises the theory of directly unproductive and profit (DUP) seeking activities, which will cause waste to national resources. Additionally, the Solow-growth model embodies technology as an endogenous factor (Agion, 1992; Romer P. , 1989), which argue that international trade ensures faster diffusion of technology, that is embodied into the better intermediate goods which results in higher productivity and growth for domestic economy (Grossman, 1991). This will result in learning by doing effect and technological know-how is surpassed. In addition, management is more efficient and all will combi ne in high growth (Krugman, 1987; Young, 1991; Lucas, 1988) . 1.2. Objective of the study A high number and standard of studies have been conducted on Export-led growth, trade openness, â€Å"manufacturing exports as a new engine of growth†, specifically in the last decade, on different economies, ranging from developed to poor countries, drawing interesting conclusions. The present study seeks to investigate the effects of export, openness on growth in the context of Bangladesh. Firstly, the study will seek for stable effects of policy shifts and implementation, in Bangladesh, which will be determined by stable changes in the determinants. Stationarity conditions, if satisfied, will ensure the stability of economy and productivity, towards a particular goal. Secondly, the study will investigate the current association between growth and trade openness. While it is desired, that the adopted outward-looking trade policies of Bangladesh to result in positive association of productivity to liberalization, trade openness might be effected by other variables and may render different conclusions. Thirdly, the study will examine, if the export led growth hypothesis is still applicable to Bangladesh, as before, while many countries, such as Sri-Lanka, Philippines, Nigeria have seen opposite relationships. Additionally, Hossain and Karunaratna (2004) have argued that â€Å"manufacturing exports have become new engine of growth† which is a disciple of the de novo hypothesis. In contrast, Adelman (1984) suggests that, agricultural exports should have dominant effect for a pro-agricultural society as Bangladesh. It is important to see if, ‘manufacturing exports is an engine of growth, or still other factors are dominant as before. Investment is an endogenous factor that should imply the increased import of intermediate goods, as a result of increased export, and more openness, would consequently; render higher productivity (Krugman, 1987; Lucas, 1988; Young, 1991). 1.3. Relevance and limitations of the study Relevant studies have been conducted in the context of Bangladesh, in last decade and have drawn interesting remarks. However, the major drawback is the timeframe of earlier studies, which did not cover analyses from the last ten years. In the last ten years, econometric methods have changed and improved rigorously. Hence, many studies have been rendered invalid due to absence of proper methodology. The world economy has seen dramatic events in politics, international trade and global economy. The trends in global economy, which were much more rigorous, in the last ten years, have affected Bangladesh magnificently, as Bangladesh emerges as a high power economy in Asia, and have interested researchers, due to high deviations and high rises to productivity. It is necessary to embody recent econometric techniques of Johansens maximum likelihood cointegration analysis and vector error correction methodology, which will inform on recent associations, among the interested indicators. Hence the state-of-art econometric techniques will provide reliable results that would help the policy makers to observe the relationships and bring sufficient changes, in trade policy to render profit. Among the few limitations of the study was the absence of first hand secondary sources. Most data sources for Bangladesh are not available online and are preserved in paper based format. The lack of proper technology and internet, withdraw the authorities of the country, to provide data directly. Therefore, data are collected from World Bank sources, which may not correct for errors, and sometimes fail to provide detailed data series as an intermediary. 1.4. Structure of the dissertation The second section will contain a brief country profile and approaches to liberalization. The third phase will contain literature review that will discuss literatures in support to export-led growth hypothesis and trade liberalization. This section will bring forth studies that contrast and significance of the study. The fourth and fifth section will contain methodology to estimation and results of analysis. The final section will give conclusion and remarks to the dissertation. 2. Process of trade openness and Export-growth in Bangladesh After independence in 1971, Bangladesh has gone through three phases of policy changes, towards deregulation and openness to trade. The first phase was marked by severe control on exports and imports. The policy implemented in 1972 to 1975, put the country in a socialist framework, with a fixed exchange rate system. Industrial enterprises, banking and trade infrastructure was massively nationalized as an inward-looking, import substitution approach was adopted. Agricultural inputs and outputs were controlled. Empirical literature suggests that this was a good decision for the researched timeframe (Ahmed N. , 2000). The second phase of policy shifting began in 1976 and continued up to 1990. This phase of denationalization, deregulation and trade liberalization lacked a good direction to work out the process. Nationalized trade barriers were reduced, and a ‘free trade approach was undertaken. Privatization of industries and banking sector was allowed and price controls over nationalized firms were lifted. Abolishment of state trading was initiated. The third phase of policy shift, were introduced in the beginning of 1991 and continued up to 2002 with significant remarks. In the recently developed policies toward export-promotion and trade openness, ‘trade barriers have been removed as a flexible exchange rate regime is adopted. To encourage further reduction of anti-export bias, export processing zones have been established, to co-operate manufacturing exports. This recent policy shift has moved towards complete privatization of banks, infrastructure and agricultural sector. During this phase, Bangladesh continued to experience rapid liberalization. In order to further opening up the boundaries, Bangladesh has entered into a ‘free trade agreement among countries in the region. As discussed, to encourage EP trade policies, and free trade, Bangladesh entered into bi-lateral agreements with India, Pakistan, Sri-Lanka, and continues to trade and investment framework agreement with United States. Bangladesh is an active member of SAARC, Developing-8, and Bangkok Agreement. The country is rigorously seeking to import in developing of a regional co-operation among Bangladesh, Bhutan and seven northeastern states of India and Nepal. From the graph presented above, it can be seen that, starting form 1971, imports were increasing at a low rate, with a fall in 1976-77, but moved up after that. The import line took a peak after the third policy implementation in 1991, and continued to rise at a high speed. The export trend was almost at a constant level, until the 1991 policy implementation. Afterwards, the trend peaked, gained a momentum after 2000. However, the export line still falls below the import trend. As reported by the export promotion bureau, in 2005-2006 FY, export earnings have grown by 21.3%, which is due to high demand of, chiefly manufactured goods, led by garments industry and knitwear. During this period, import payments have grown by 9.5%. In contrast to real export, manufacturing exports exhibit of higher exports than imports which are in percentage of merchandise exports. This is indicative of higher productivity. When the country adopts rigorous trade policy towards openness and promoting exports, large scale capital owners and labor unions are in oppose to liberalization. The cause of opposition may lie in the fact that, increased competition, effect the workers, in protected public and private sector, who fail to adjust to the exposed economy, with increased productivity. The politicians tend to protect large scale owners, who severely discourage competition and create bias towards exports (Sattar, 2004). 3. Literature Review 3.1. Concepts and Empirics on Export-Led Growth Phenomenon Export led growth phenomenon has been central to the trade and development literature for many years. The bulk of researches that has taken place on this issue are therefore, not small in number and range. The focuses of these studies were bi-directional. Some of the studies attempted to find whether expanding export would improve the growth performance. Others tried to find the paths through which the expansion of export will affect the growth performance. Economic theory confirms that export expansion leads to increase the growth performance, as that efficiently allocates productive resources and also with the high volume of productive resources accumulated as a result of higher capital earned through export growth, (Bardhan, 1970; Cheneray, 1966; Basu, 1991; Romer P. , 1989 ; McKinnon, 1964; Grossman, 1991). Export expansion makes the home country to concentrate on comparative advantages and to earn economies of scale. The home country continues to invest on its economies of scale and achieve better efficiency. The increased efficiency creates external competitive pressure on the home country, along with improved internal competition. In the face of more competition, the monopolistic and oligopolostic behavior of the market is eliminated. Efficiency is also created as learning by doing. Knowledge is transferred to other sectors and growth is enhanced. The external competition, aids the small economy to realise and emphasize on removing limitations, through economies of scale, and by reaping the true advantage of globalisation, which is acquired by increasing export. The theoitical literature also argues that, export expansion increases the investment and capital accumulation in a country. The two-gap model explains , that growing export reduces the constraints that prevail in foreign exchange. Such reduction of constraints lead to better accumulation of productive resources, capital goods and intermediate goods (McKinnon, 1964; Bacha, 1984; Cheneray, 1966). Export expansion also increases investement opportunity of a country. Modern economists suggest that, savings by domestic and banking system, government savings and foreign exchange savings cannot only induce investment. Investment opportunities determine investment rather than savings. The growth of export will provide investment opportunities to home country, (Sandrum, 1994). Theories suggest that, the relationship of export and economic growth is bi-directional. Economic growth may also increase export for a country. The effect of better learning and technological development, give rise to output. The growth of output ensures that domestic demand is met and export will expand. However, this technological process development or learning process development is not directly related to the export promoting policies (Jung, 1985). As the home country realizes economies of scale, expansion of export takes place. Investemnt (Grossman, 1991). Therefore, the bi-directional theory suggests that, GDP is a function of investment, that enhances export performance, and export increases investment opportunity, that is directed to GDP growth. In the designing process of development economics, entailed was dominant export passimistic theories, rather than export promoting views. After the end of world war II, import substitution strategies were to be followed by many countries. However, the initial phase of implementing import substitution strategies seemed ideal during that period, but the results of taking attempts to implement the import substitution strategies were not favorable for all economies. Economists found that, that export passimistic views were not justified for many economies that have reached a certain level of development, and industrialization. On the other hand, the import substitution trade policies laid undesirable effcts on balance of payment. As a result, the growing economies did not accept import substitution strategies, rather accept export promoting views (Adelman, 1984). The growth led export is also suggested by theories. According to Bhagwati (1988), growth led export hypothesis is dominant when supply and demand is induced by growth. In such cases, anti-trade bias is turned down.The possibility of bi-directional causality prevails in many major theoritical literture (Grossman, 1991; Bhagwati J. , 1988). On the other hand, Irma Adelman (1984) argues that, export-led growth is not the only open development strategy for a least developed country. The open development strategy that ensures the allocation of agriculturally driven resources may prove superior than the strategy for allocation of capital for investment resources. An alternative to the import substituion strategy, for a closed development approach, maybe an ADLI ( agricultural-demand-led-industrialization) strategy. It is important to identify the phase of closed development ideology, which is dominant after the era of Pro-agricultural strategy is over. Another theoritical literature similarly argued that, ADLI as a balanced-gowth-approach, can only be a mean, to attain the goal for developing countries need for higher growth, and the need for growing industrialization by expanding the demand for domestically produecd consumer goods and intermediate goods. The linkage effect to agriculture with industrialization is also exam ined (Singer, 1979). Singer (1979) defines this target as Lime target and ADLI is the solution. However, Irma Adelman(1984), also puts out the constraints to ADLI strategy as it requires the improvement of infrastructure in Agriculture which is difficult to attain in South Asian Sub-continent. The physical capital needs to be perfectly infrustructred for ADLI yield expected results. Therefore, ADLI strategy is a solution to allow time to the developing countries to bring abouth changes structurally, in 1980s to 1990s. This strategy cannot wire out the importance of export-promoting strategies as an alternative for import substituion strategies at all (Adelman, 1984). Alongside the theoritical literatures on export-led growth hypothesis, the number empirical literature from the first of its kind by Maizels(1963) is many. Jung and Marsall(1985) scanned 11 empirical studies that were carried out from 1967 to 1982 timeframe, and all of the studies found supportive relationships to export and growth. Greenaway and Sapsford(1994), reviewed 14 empirical studies that were conducted on the export-led growth hypothesis, and 12 empirical studies vividly shown relationships between export and growth. One of a major study conducted by Giles and Williams (2000), which conducted 150 cross country analysis from 1963 to 1999. Out of the 57 countries that were analysed , only 4 countries failed to show significant relationships between export and growth, and only 10 out of the 102 time series analysis didnt show significant relationships between export and growth. It has interested the empirical literature to examine export-led growth hypothesis prior and after the oil shock in 1973-74 timeframe. Among the studies,that took place prior to the oil shock, Michalopoulos and Jay (1973) conducted a study in a 1960-73 timeframe, by estimating export and gowth into a poduction function, signifcant relationships were found. Tyler (1981) conducted study on a group of middle income countries, putting export and growth into similar production function framework, and found similar relationships.Therefore, export orientation into the framework is supposed to effect growth therough economies of scale, allcation of productive resources and utilization of capital, optimally. The study of Feder (1983) found similar results. Balassa (1983) were dubious about the relationship afther oil shock, as in the face of economic recession 1974-75 that took place after the quadrupling of oil price in 1973-74, may have effected the relationship because of the orientation o f external shock in the production function. The study he conducted had taken th period of 1973-79, after the shcok, on 43 developing countries, who were directly affected by subsequent recession. The result did show export affecting growth positively and the numerical magnitude of the effect did grow compared to early results. The changes in intercountry growth rate before and after the oil shock is rather a result of different trade policies introduced. An important theoritical implication is increasing export also paves the way for imported capital goods to be entered into the country (Islam M. , 1998). As productivity is increased, investment along with profit grows and the economy enjoys higher growth (Edward, 1993; Levine, 1992). In last two decades, exports of newly industrialized countries grew by 20%. Manufacturing exports entailed 70% of total exports. As a third factor, import of manufactured and productive capital goods increased. The demand for these capital goods indicates the increasing rate of growth. Therefore, the plethora of studies on export and growth make this issue important enough to review. 3.2. Cross-country empirical analyses In light of previous section, many empirical literature also focused on perticular countries or a category of countries to examine the export-led growth hypothesis. In theoritical literature, it is defined that, if export growth coefficients and and output growth coefficients are significantly positive in regression, the country follows export promoting strategies. If output growth causes export growth in regression than the country is labelled IGE or internally generated exports. On the other hand if a export growth coeiicient and output growth coefficient is negetively correlated in the regression for growth, the country follows ERG or export reducing growth strategy (Jung, 1985). Such countries are following inward-oriented strategies rather than outward-oriented policies. Inward-oriented countries may also follow IS (import substitution) trade policy. Many empirical studies on cross-country did confirm the existence of export-led growth for different countries, and in some countries results otherwise is found. Hatemi J. and Irandsout (2000) continued analysis on Ireland, Portugal and Mexico, and significant relationship was confirmed. In the same study, they failed to confirm causal relationship for Greece and Turkey (Hatemi-J.A., 2000). The study by Ghirmay et al. (2001) did find positive relationship of export and growth for a number of developing countries. Just after one year, another study by Greenaway et al. (2002) conducted analysis on a number of selected developing countries and found that the growth rate for these countries dropped immediately after trade reform, for a constant rate of export, but gained momentum following a J-curve response after the affect of trade refor wires out. M. Michaely (1976) analysed 41 developing countries for a significantly large period. The resulting conclusion implicated that while Greece, Taiwan, Portugal, Spain, Israel, Yoguslavia and Koria had rapid growth with increasing export, Portugal did not show significant export growth, while GDP was growing in same pace. On the other hand, when Ethiopia incresed its export performance considerably, but failed to increase its growth to the pace with other countries. On the basis of rank correlations, M. Michaely (1976) concluded that export performance will positively effect growth of a country, only when a country achieves development of a perticular level. Countries below this level will fail to exhibit good export-growth relationships. Bela Balassa(1977) followed similar study conducted by M. Michaely (1976), running rank correlations on a sample of countries that established industrial base for a timeframe of 1960-73. Among these countries, Korea, Singapore and Taiwan adopted EP (ex port promoting) strategies at a very early stage and provided incentive to the exporting sector by subsidizing the sector in many ways. On the contrary, though, Israel and Yoguslavia promoted export during the same period, but their efforts seemed to dim in the later periods. On the other extreme, Argentina, Brazil, Columbia and Mexico, continued the existing trade policy, supporting import substitution (IS). During this period, Chile and India continued their inward-oriented policies and was in the phase of weakly introducing export promotion policies. The resulting conclusion estimated that, while Korea and Taiwan would have less growth with more export, Chile, India, Mexico,Brazil and almost all other countries would have better levels of growth with higher levels of export. The countries that moved to opposite direction is due to the unfavorable internal conditions and policy constraints, the countries have. Similarly, for Phillipines and Srilanka, opposite direction of relation ship is found (Islam M. , 1998). 3.3. Controversial Theories and Evidence Due to the debt crisis and continued recession that prevailed during 1980s, after many countries adopted export promoting strategies, theorists and economicsts were dubious about export-led growth hypothesis. It became a necessity to re-examine the export promoting strategies (Bhagwati J. , 1988). The revived passimistic school of thought was dominated by old and new school of thoughts. The most influencial school of thoughts were suggested by two great contemporay development economists, that were Raul Prebisch (Prebisch, 1952) and Ragner Nurkse (Nurkse, 1953). Prebisch (1952) recommended that, chief exports for newly industrialized countries will decline following a natural cycle, regardless of the trade policy implemented by the home country. Producers of home economy will respond by rapid industrialization and the economy will respond by employing more protection and higher level of restrictions. All these attempts will make export promotion unjustified. The other dominant export passimism was realized by Nurkse(1953), who stressed more on â€Å"balanced growth†. The â€Å"balanced growth† theory suggests that the accelerated pace of growth and exports of developing countries, make foreign markets unable to accommodate imports on sufficient level. Developing economies shift from raw materials to synthetic materials as inputs, and damage exports for developing countries longer run. Riedel (1984) suggests that, demand dominates export performance. It is a biased view towards export growth relationship if that is explained by export performance of selected countries. Export performance maybe more reliant on domestic incentives of a country, rather than the external conditions (Riedel, 1984). The new literatures focus more on successful Asian exporters, which maybe a mistake to be implemented as a general strategy for all economies. The sources of worry advocates that, markets are shifted to export promotion, markets will fail to absorb all exports. The earlier wave of export passimism was afflicted by this idea. Economists have always supported the idea of intra-industry specialization which leads to adoption of inward-oriented policies, and terms an economy as closed economy.The countries that adopt outward-oriented policies to a greater extent, or publicly promotes export promoting strategies, associates some level of government intervention. The government intervention makes sure that exports are promoted, subsidized and invested into. The countries that are empirically supportive of export-led growth hypothesis, mostly follow government intervention. This practice is generalized except countries like Hong-Kong. However, these are exceptional cases and should not be g eneralized (Bhagwati J. , 1988). Economists also view that, export promoting trade policies, make the domestic market less sheltered and susceptible to world economic condition, outside pressure, world competition as well as innovation. This view has also been critisized and the opposite direction is supported by Schumpeterian arguments (Bhagwati J. , 1984). The theory of market imperfections addressed by Fields(1984) suggests that, in presence of excessively high wages, countries may do poorly. An example of this theory is set to Jamaica. Another interesting theory is the satisfaction theory of import substitution suggests that, the export promotion strategies are not suitable for many newly industrialzed countries due to their lack of flexibility for movemet of capital resources. Countries also lack the political capabilities to implement this flexibility (Ruggie,1983). Similar argument is also suggested by Adelman (1984) who argues that, agricultural-demand-led-industrialization strategy should be applied to allo w a country enough time, for it to develop a structural base, before the country can successfully implement export promoting strategies. Export-led growth will follow if the country can achieve a minimum level of development as suggested before. While in the face of rapid growth, many countries are doing well with export promoting trade policies, countries like Taiwan, Sri-Lanka, Phillipines, Jamaica, Brazil, Korea. are examples of countries, that was not in the position to implement export-promoting trade strategies,and the desired export-led growth was not achieved. In some theories, learning by doing or intra-industrial knowledge transfer was an important factor for adopting export promotion strategies. It is believed to be a mean of acquiring economies of scale for industries. The know-how process is a major motivating factor for economies, to support export promotion strategies. However, even, learning by doing effect dims down and may stop completely in absence of newly developed technology (Young, 1991). This makes outward-orientation unjustified and export-led growth, a failure. Import substitution and export promotion strategies do best when they are complementary (Grabowski,1994; Hamilton and Thompson, 1994). One important alternative suggested by Adelman (1984), is the ADLI (agricultural-demand-led-industrialization) strategy. The ADLI argument can be set into the similar footsteps of IGE (internally gorwn exports) of Jung (1985). Adelman (1984) argues that, when the countries became more reliant on industrial export-led growth, the controversies arise as many of least developed countries experienced lower employment, deteriorated income distribution, high level of food imports as domestic demand is not met, and lower level of growth. Therefore, countries required to implement more basic need oriented strategies. The rising foreign exchange constraints, and the serious liquidity problems, least developed countries faced, as they moved towards more export promoting strategies, following the export-led growth hypothesis, newly renewed export passimism (Adelman, 1984). As empirical evidence, causality tests between export and groth conducted by Jung and Marshall (1985) on 37 countries should be addressed. In this empirical study, countries as many as South Africa, Korea, Pakistan, Israel, Bolivia and Peru did not show significantly positive relationship between export and growth. Rather these countries showed export reducing growth, which is the other way around. If these countries implements export promoting trade strategy, the countries will experience crippled economy and lower growth. Countries such as Iran, Kenya and Thailand are in favor of internally generated growth, and in the process of successfully implement export promoting growth policy (Jung, 1985). Looking at the above results, countries therefore, support import substitution as a pro-agricultural trade policy (Adelman, 1984). Countries are also adviced to move towards ADLI strategy in this stage. It may not be favorable for countries to immediately implement export promoting trade strategies, hoping to yield benefits of export-led growth hypthesis. In the primary stage, countries require import substitution policies, to develop intra-indistrial skills, economies of scale, and a trade base to a minimum level. The level in between is a complementary stage between import substitution and export promotion. Countries as India, Malaysia, Bangldesh in South east Asian region, followed import substitution for longer period until they believed to reach the minimum level, before these countries can move towards outward-oriented policies and introduced trade openness, and enjoyed the benefits of export-led-growth. For many countries mentioned above, steps taken in an earlier phase, have backfired. Therefore, the controversies to export led growth is as prevailent as the support toward the hypothesis. 3.4. Empirics on export led-growth and trade liberalization in the context of Bangladesh As one of Asias growing power house economy, The export-led growth hypothesis has been examined in the context of Bangladesh, in many empirical literaures. Among the newly conducted researches, conintegration analyses, vector error correction models, explained many important variables such as manufacturing exports, investment capital to the total exports and growth. This part will briefly review the studies conducted in the context of Bangladesh. Since its independence, Bangladesh embarked in a import substitution trade policy; following the ideology that a pro-agricultural society should be motivated to develop intra-industry to achieve economies of scale (Adelman, 1984). The mounting foreign debt, instable political condition, low productivity and growth, lower national income, did not allow the country to achieve its economic objective. Therefore, the country had to convert its inward looking policies, towards more outward looking policy, and adopted export promoting trade policy in 1982. Many structural adjustments were adviced by world bank and international monetary fund. The country went under furth Effect of Exports on Growth Effect of Exports on Growth 1. Introduction 1.1. Theoretical Framework The general idea of free trade agreement of growth was developed in advocacy of free trade based on neoclassical trade theory (Solow, 1956) and from recent endogenous growth theory (Romer P. , 1990). The support for free trade is drawn from Ricardian principles of comparative advantage (Viner, 1937). Similar idea is drawn from the notion of perfect competition and the believe of neoclassical economists who argues on the importance of efficient capital allocation due to free trade (Krugman, 1986; Corden W. , 1974). The phenomenon of free trade came under severe scrutiny in the face of Great Depression. Hence, theoretical foundations of ‘optimum tariff were developed in support of protection (Johnson, 1950; Kaldor, 1940). Johnson (1958, 1971) advocated trade protection in three groups in his classical exposition. They are the economic arguments, non-economic arguments and non-arguments. Economic arguments raise infant industry argument, optimal tariff argument and correction of domestic market distortions, while non-economic arguments emphasize on self-sufficiency for domestic economy. Non-arguments attempt to resolve balance of payment distortions through trade protection. Johnson concluded that ‘optimal tariff protection is the only valid argument, while in other cases such arguments will only inflict distortions. The neoclassical economists refute the notion of protection as an alternative, as this would result in intra-industry effects. The increased barrier to entry would make domestic traders to engage in monopolistic competition, while small enterprises will be left inefficient. Intra-industry effects are the source to welfare loss (Tybout J. D., 1991). In addition, Bhagwati(1988) and Kruger(1974), raises the theory of directly unproductive and profit (DUP) seeking activities, which will cause waste to national resources. Additionally, the Solow-growth model embodies technology as an endogenous factor (Agion, 1992; Romer P. , 1989), which argue that international trade ensures faster diffusion of technology, that is embodied into the better intermediate goods which results in higher productivity and growth for domestic economy (Grossman, 1991). This will result in learning by doing effect and technological know-how is surpassed. In addition, management is more efficient and all will combi ne in high growth (Krugman, 1987; Young, 1991; Lucas, 1988) . 1.2. Objective of the study A high number and standard of studies have been conducted on Export-led growth, trade openness, â€Å"manufacturing exports as a new engine of growth†, specifically in the last decade, on different economies, ranging from developed to poor countries, drawing interesting conclusions. The present study seeks to investigate the effects of export, openness on growth in the context of Bangladesh. Firstly, the study will seek for stable effects of policy shifts and implementation, in Bangladesh, which will be determined by stable changes in the determinants. Stationarity conditions, if satisfied, will ensure the stability of economy and productivity, towards a particular goal. Secondly, the study will investigate the current association between growth and trade openness. While it is desired, that the adopted outward-looking trade policies of Bangladesh to result in positive association of productivity to liberalization, trade openness might be effected by other variables and may render different conclusions. Thirdly, the study will examine, if the export led growth hypothesis is still applicable to Bangladesh, as before, while many countries, such as Sri-Lanka, Philippines, Nigeria have seen opposite relationships. Additionally, Hossain and Karunaratna (2004) have argued that â€Å"manufacturing exports have become new engine of growth† which is a disciple of the de novo hypothesis. In contrast, Adelman (1984) suggests that, agricultural exports should have dominant effect for a pro-agricultural society as Bangladesh. It is important to see if, ‘manufacturing exports is an engine of growth, or still other factors are dominant as before. Investment is an endogenous factor that should imply the increased import of intermediate goods, as a result of increased export, and more openness, would consequently; render higher productivity (Krugman, 1987; Lucas, 1988; Young, 1991). 1.3. Relevance and limitations of the study Relevant studies have been conducted in the context of Bangladesh, in last decade and have drawn interesting remarks. However, the major drawback is the timeframe of earlier studies, which did not cover analyses from the last ten years. In the last ten years, econometric methods have changed and improved rigorously. Hence, many studies have been rendered invalid due to absence of proper methodology. The world economy has seen dramatic events in politics, international trade and global economy. The trends in global economy, which were much more rigorous, in the last ten years, have affected Bangladesh magnificently, as Bangladesh emerges as a high power economy in Asia, and have interested researchers, due to high deviations and high rises to productivity. It is necessary to embody recent econometric techniques of Johansens maximum likelihood cointegration analysis and vector error correction methodology, which will inform on recent associations, among the interested indicators. Hence the state-of-art econometric techniques will provide reliable results that would help the policy makers to observe the relationships and bring sufficient changes, in trade policy to render profit. Among the few limitations of the study was the absence of first hand secondary sources. Most data sources for Bangladesh are not available online and are preserved in paper based format. The lack of proper technology and internet, withdraw the authorities of the country, to provide data directly. Therefore, data are collected from World Bank sources, which may not correct for errors, and sometimes fail to provide detailed data series as an intermediary. 1.4. Structure of the dissertation The second section will contain a brief country profile and approaches to liberalization. The third phase will contain literature review that will discuss literatures in support to export-led growth hypothesis and trade liberalization. This section will bring forth studies that contrast and significance of the study. The fourth and fifth section will contain methodology to estimation and results of analysis. The final section will give conclusion and remarks to the dissertation. 2. Process of trade openness and Export-growth in Bangladesh After independence in 1971, Bangladesh has gone through three phases of policy changes, towards deregulation and openness to trade. The first phase was marked by severe control on exports and imports. The policy implemented in 1972 to 1975, put the country in a socialist framework, with a fixed exchange rate system. Industrial enterprises, banking and trade infrastructure was massively nationalized as an inward-looking, import substitution approach was adopted. Agricultural inputs and outputs were controlled. Empirical literature suggests that this was a good decision for the researched timeframe (Ahmed N. , 2000). The second phase of policy shifting began in 1976 and continued up to 1990. This phase of denationalization, deregulation and trade liberalization lacked a good direction to work out the process. Nationalized trade barriers were reduced, and a ‘free trade approach was undertaken. Privatization of industries and banking sector was allowed and price controls over nationalized firms were lifted. Abolishment of state trading was initiated. The third phase of policy shift, were introduced in the beginning of 1991 and continued up to 2002 with significant remarks. In the recently developed policies toward export-promotion and trade openness, ‘trade barriers have been removed as a flexible exchange rate regime is adopted. To encourage further reduction of anti-export bias, export processing zones have been established, to co-operate manufacturing exports. This recent policy shift has moved towards complete privatization of banks, infrastructure and agricultural sector. During this phase, Bangladesh continued to experience rapid liberalization. In order to further opening up the boundaries, Bangladesh has entered into a ‘free trade agreement among countries in the region. As discussed, to encourage EP trade policies, and free trade, Bangladesh entered into bi-lateral agreements with India, Pakistan, Sri-Lanka, and continues to trade and investment framework agreement with United States. Bangladesh is an active member of SAARC, Developing-8, and Bangkok Agreement. The country is rigorously seeking to import in developing of a regional co-operation among Bangladesh, Bhutan and seven northeastern states of India and Nepal. From the graph presented above, it can be seen that, starting form 1971, imports were increasing at a low rate, with a fall in 1976-77, but moved up after that. The import line took a peak after the third policy implementation in 1991, and continued to rise at a high speed. The export trend was almost at a constant level, until the 1991 policy implementation. Afterwards, the trend peaked, gained a momentum after 2000. However, the export line still falls below the import trend. As reported by the export promotion bureau, in 2005-2006 FY, export earnings have grown by 21.3%, which is due to high demand of, chiefly manufactured goods, led by garments industry and knitwear. During this period, import payments have grown by 9.5%. In contrast to real export, manufacturing exports exhibit of higher exports than imports which are in percentage of merchandise exports. This is indicative of higher productivity. When the country adopts rigorous trade policy towards openness and promoting exports, large scale capital owners and labor unions are in oppose to liberalization. The cause of opposition may lie in the fact that, increased competition, effect the workers, in protected public and private sector, who fail to adjust to the exposed economy, with increased productivity. The politicians tend to protect large scale owners, who severely discourage competition and create bias towards exports (Sattar, 2004). 3. Literature Review 3.1. Concepts and Empirics on Export-Led Growth Phenomenon Export led growth phenomenon has been central to the trade and development literature for many years. The bulk of researches that has taken place on this issue are therefore, not small in number and range. The focuses of these studies were bi-directional. Some of the studies attempted to find whether expanding export would improve the growth performance. Others tried to find the paths through which the expansion of export will affect the growth performance. Economic theory confirms that export expansion leads to increase the growth performance, as that efficiently allocates productive resources and also with the high volume of productive resources accumulated as a result of higher capital earned through export growth, (Bardhan, 1970; Cheneray, 1966; Basu, 1991; Romer P. , 1989 ; McKinnon, 1964; Grossman, 1991). Export expansion makes the home country to concentrate on comparative advantages and to earn economies of scale. The home country continues to invest on its economies of scale and achieve better efficiency. The increased efficiency creates external competitive pressure on the home country, along with improved internal competition. In the face of more competition, the monopolistic and oligopolostic behavior of the market is eliminated. Efficiency is also created as learning by doing. Knowledge is transferred to other sectors and growth is enhanced. The external competition, aids the small economy to realise and emphasize on removing limitations, through economies of scale, and by reaping the true advantage of globalisation, which is acquired by increasing export. The theoitical literature also argues that, export expansion increases the investment and capital accumulation in a country. The two-gap model explains , that growing export reduces the constraints that prevail in foreign exchange. Such reduction of constraints lead to better accumulation of productive resources, capital goods and intermediate goods (McKinnon, 1964; Bacha, 1984; Cheneray, 1966). Export expansion also increases investement opportunity of a country. Modern economists suggest that, savings by domestic and banking system, government savings and foreign exchange savings cannot only induce investment. Investment opportunities determine investment rather than savings. The growth of export will provide investment opportunities to home country, (Sandrum, 1994). Theories suggest that, the relationship of export and economic growth is bi-directional. Economic growth may also increase export for a country. The effect of better learning and technological development, give rise to output. The growth of output ensures that domestic demand is met and export will expand. However, this technological process development or learning process development is not directly related to the export promoting policies (Jung, 1985). As the home country realizes economies of scale, expansion of export takes place. Investemnt (Grossman, 1991). Therefore, the bi-directional theory suggests that, GDP is a function of investment, that enhances export performance, and export increases investment opportunity, that is directed to GDP growth. In the designing process of development economics, entailed was dominant export passimistic theories, rather than export promoting views. After the end of world war II, import substitution strategies were to be followed by many countries. However, the initial phase of implementing import substitution strategies seemed ideal during that period, but the results of taking attempts to implement the import substitution strategies were not favorable for all economies. Economists found that, that export passimistic views were not justified for many economies that have reached a certain level of development, and industrialization. On the other hand, the import substitution trade policies laid undesirable effcts on balance of payment. As a result, the growing economies did not accept import substitution strategies, rather accept export promoting views (Adelman, 1984). The growth led export is also suggested by theories. According to Bhagwati (1988), growth led export hypothesis is dominant when supply and demand is induced by growth. In such cases, anti-trade bias is turned down.The possibility of bi-directional causality prevails in many major theoritical literture (Grossman, 1991; Bhagwati J. , 1988). On the other hand, Irma Adelman (1984) argues that, export-led growth is not the only open development strategy for a least developed country. The open development strategy that ensures the allocation of agriculturally driven resources may prove superior than the strategy for allocation of capital for investment resources. An alternative to the import substituion strategy, for a closed development approach, maybe an ADLI ( agricultural-demand-led-industrialization) strategy. It is important to identify the phase of closed development ideology, which is dominant after the era of Pro-agricultural strategy is over. Another theoritical literature similarly argued that, ADLI as a balanced-gowth-approach, can only be a mean, to attain the goal for developing countries need for higher growth, and the need for growing industrialization by expanding the demand for domestically produecd consumer goods and intermediate goods. The linkage effect to agriculture with industrialization is also exam ined (Singer, 1979). Singer (1979) defines this target as Lime target and ADLI is the solution. However, Irma Adelman(1984), also puts out the constraints to ADLI strategy as it requires the improvement of infrastructure in Agriculture which is difficult to attain in South Asian Sub-continent. The physical capital needs to be perfectly infrustructred for ADLI yield expected results. Therefore, ADLI strategy is a solution to allow time to the developing countries to bring abouth changes structurally, in 1980s to 1990s. This strategy cannot wire out the importance of export-promoting strategies as an alternative for import substituion strategies at all (Adelman, 1984). Alongside the theoritical literatures on export-led growth hypothesis, the number empirical literature from the first of its kind by Maizels(1963) is many. Jung and Marsall(1985) scanned 11 empirical studies that were carried out from 1967 to 1982 timeframe, and all of the studies found supportive relationships to export and growth. Greenaway and Sapsford(1994), reviewed 14 empirical studies that were conducted on the export-led growth hypothesis, and 12 empirical studies vividly shown relationships between export and growth. One of a major study conducted by Giles and Williams (2000), which conducted 150 cross country analysis from 1963 to 1999. Out of the 57 countries that were analysed , only 4 countries failed to show significant relationships between export and growth, and only 10 out of the 102 time series analysis didnt show significant relationships between export and growth. It has interested the empirical literature to examine export-led growth hypothesis prior and after the oil shock in 1973-74 timeframe. Among the studies,that took place prior to the oil shock, Michalopoulos and Jay (1973) conducted a study in a 1960-73 timeframe, by estimating export and gowth into a poduction function, signifcant relationships were found. Tyler (1981) conducted study on a group of middle income countries, putting export and growth into similar production function framework, and found similar relationships.Therefore, export orientation into the framework is supposed to effect growth therough economies of scale, allcation of productive resources and utilization of capital, optimally. The study of Feder (1983) found similar results. Balassa (1983) were dubious about the relationship afther oil shock, as in the face of economic recession 1974-75 that took place after the quadrupling of oil price in 1973-74, may have effected the relationship because of the orientation o f external shock in the production function. The study he conducted had taken th period of 1973-79, after the shcok, on 43 developing countries, who were directly affected by subsequent recession. The result did show export affecting growth positively and the numerical magnitude of the effect did grow compared to early results. The changes in intercountry growth rate before and after the oil shock is rather a result of different trade policies introduced. An important theoritical implication is increasing export also paves the way for imported capital goods to be entered into the country (Islam M. , 1998). As productivity is increased, investment along with profit grows and the economy enjoys higher growth (Edward, 1993; Levine, 1992). In last two decades, exports of newly industrialized countries grew by 20%. Manufacturing exports entailed 70% of total exports. As a third factor, import of manufactured and productive capital goods increased. The demand for these capital goods indicates the increasing rate of growth. Therefore, the plethora of studies on export and growth make this issue important enough to review. 3.2. Cross-country empirical analyses In light of previous section, many empirical literature also focused on perticular countries or a category of countries to examine the export-led growth hypothesis. In theoritical literature, it is defined that, if export growth coefficients and and output growth coefficients are significantly positive in regression, the country follows export promoting strategies. If output growth causes export growth in regression than the country is labelled IGE or internally generated exports. On the other hand if a export growth coeiicient and output growth coefficient is negetively correlated in the regression for growth, the country follows ERG or export reducing growth strategy (Jung, 1985). Such countries are following inward-oriented strategies rather than outward-oriented policies. Inward-oriented countries may also follow IS (import substitution) trade policy. Many empirical studies on cross-country did confirm the existence of export-led growth for different countries, and in some countries results otherwise is found. Hatemi J. and Irandsout (2000) continued analysis on Ireland, Portugal and Mexico, and significant relationship was confirmed. In the same study, they failed to confirm causal relationship for Greece and Turkey (Hatemi-J.A., 2000). The study by Ghirmay et al. (2001) did find positive relationship of export and growth for a number of developing countries. Just after one year, another study by Greenaway et al. (2002) conducted analysis on a number of selected developing countries and found that the growth rate for these countries dropped immediately after trade reform, for a constant rate of export, but gained momentum following a J-curve response after the affect of trade refor wires out. M. Michaely (1976) analysed 41 developing countries for a significantly large period. The resulting conclusion implicated that while Greece, Taiwan, Portugal, Spain, Israel, Yoguslavia and Koria had rapid growth with increasing export, Portugal did not show significant export growth, while GDP was growing in same pace. On the other hand, when Ethiopia incresed its export performance considerably, but failed to increase its growth to the pace with other countries. On the basis of rank correlations, M. Michaely (1976) concluded that export performance will positively effect growth of a country, only when a country achieves development of a perticular level. Countries below this level will fail to exhibit good export-growth relationships. Bela Balassa(1977) followed similar study conducted by M. Michaely (1976), running rank correlations on a sample of countries that established industrial base for a timeframe of 1960-73. Among these countries, Korea, Singapore and Taiwan adopted EP (ex port promoting) strategies at a very early stage and provided incentive to the exporting sector by subsidizing the sector in many ways. On the contrary, though, Israel and Yoguslavia promoted export during the same period, but their efforts seemed to dim in the later periods. On the other extreme, Argentina, Brazil, Columbia and Mexico, continued the existing trade policy, supporting import substitution (IS). During this period, Chile and India continued their inward-oriented policies and was in the phase of weakly introducing export promotion policies. The resulting conclusion estimated that, while Korea and Taiwan would have less growth with more export, Chile, India, Mexico,Brazil and almost all other countries would have better levels of growth with higher levels of export. The countries that moved to opposite direction is due to the unfavorable internal conditions and policy constraints, the countries have. Similarly, for Phillipines and Srilanka, opposite direction of relation ship is found (Islam M. , 1998). 3.3. Controversial Theories and Evidence Due to the debt crisis and continued recession that prevailed during 1980s, after many countries adopted export promoting strategies, theorists and economicsts were dubious about export-led growth hypothesis. It became a necessity to re-examine the export promoting strategies (Bhagwati J. , 1988). The revived passimistic school of thought was dominated by old and new school of thoughts. The most influencial school of thoughts were suggested by two great contemporay development economists, that were Raul Prebisch (Prebisch, 1952) and Ragner Nurkse (Nurkse, 1953). Prebisch (1952) recommended that, chief exports for newly industrialized countries will decline following a natural cycle, regardless of the trade policy implemented by the home country. Producers of home economy will respond by rapid industrialization and the economy will respond by employing more protection and higher level of restrictions. All these attempts will make export promotion unjustified. The other dominant export passimism was realized by Nurkse(1953), who stressed more on â€Å"balanced growth†. The â€Å"balanced growth† theory suggests that the accelerated pace of growth and exports of developing countries, make foreign markets unable to accommodate imports on sufficient level. Developing economies shift from raw materials to synthetic materials as inputs, and damage exports for developing countries longer run. Riedel (1984) suggests that, demand dominates export performance. It is a biased view towards export growth relationship if that is explained by export performance of selected countries. Export performance maybe more reliant on domestic incentives of a country, rather than the external conditions (Riedel, 1984). The new literatures focus more on successful Asian exporters, which maybe a mistake to be implemented as a general strategy for all economies. The sources of worry advocates that, markets are shifted to export promotion, markets will fail to absorb all exports. The earlier wave of export passimism was afflicted by this idea. Economists have always supported the idea of intra-industry specialization which leads to adoption of inward-oriented policies, and terms an economy as closed economy.The countries that adopt outward-oriented policies to a greater extent, or publicly promotes export promoting strategies, associates some level of government intervention. The government intervention makes sure that exports are promoted, subsidized and invested into. The countries that are empirically supportive of export-led growth hypothesis, mostly follow government intervention. This practice is generalized except countries like Hong-Kong. However, these are exceptional cases and should not be g eneralized (Bhagwati J. , 1988). Economists also view that, export promoting trade policies, make the domestic market less sheltered and susceptible to world economic condition, outside pressure, world competition as well as innovation. This view has also been critisized and the opposite direction is supported by Schumpeterian arguments (Bhagwati J. , 1984). The theory of market imperfections addressed by Fields(1984) suggests that, in presence of excessively high wages, countries may do poorly. An example of this theory is set to Jamaica. Another interesting theory is the satisfaction theory of import substitution suggests that, the export promotion strategies are not suitable for many newly industrialzed countries due to their lack of flexibility for movemet of capital resources. Countries also lack the political capabilities to implement this flexibility (Ruggie,1983). Similar argument is also suggested by Adelman (1984) who argues that, agricultural-demand-led-industrialization strategy should be applied to allo w a country enough time, for it to develop a structural base, before the country can successfully implement export promoting strategies. Export-led growth will follow if the country can achieve a minimum level of development as suggested before. While in the face of rapid growth, many countries are doing well with export promoting trade policies, countries like Taiwan, Sri-Lanka, Phillipines, Jamaica, Brazil, Korea. are examples of countries, that was not in the position to implement export-promoting trade strategies,and the desired export-led growth was not achieved. In some theories, learning by doing or intra-industrial knowledge transfer was an important factor for adopting export promotion strategies. It is believed to be a mean of acquiring economies of scale for industries. The know-how process is a major motivating factor for economies, to support export promotion strategies. However, even, learning by doing effect dims down and may stop completely in absence of newly developed technology (Young, 1991). This makes outward-orientation unjustified and export-led growth, a failure. Import substitution and export promotion strategies do best when they are complementary (Grabowski,1994; Hamilton and Thompson, 1994). One important alternative suggested by Adelman (1984), is the ADLI (agricultural-demand-led-industrialization) strategy. The ADLI argument can be set into the similar footsteps of IGE (internally gorwn exports) of Jung (1985). Adelman (1984) argues that, when the countries became more reliant on industrial export-led growth, the controversies arise as many of least developed countries experienced lower employment, deteriorated income distribution, high level of food imports as domestic demand is not met, and lower level of growth. Therefore, countries required to implement more basic need oriented strategies. The rising foreign exchange constraints, and the serious liquidity problems, least developed countries faced, as they moved towards more export promoting strategies, following the export-led growth hypothesis, newly renewed export passimism (Adelman, 1984). As empirical evidence, causality tests between export and groth conducted by Jung and Marshall (1985) on 37 countries should be addressed. In this empirical study, countries as many as South Africa, Korea, Pakistan, Israel, Bolivia and Peru did not show significantly positive relationship between export and growth. Rather these countries showed export reducing growth, which is the other way around. If these countries implements export promoting trade strategy, the countries will experience crippled economy and lower growth. Countries such as Iran, Kenya and Thailand are in favor of internally generated growth, and in the process of successfully implement export promoting growth policy (Jung, 1985). Looking at the above results, countries therefore, support import substitution as a pro-agricultural trade policy (Adelman, 1984). Countries are also adviced to move towards ADLI strategy in this stage. It may not be favorable for countries to immediately implement export promoting trade strategies, hoping to yield benefits of export-led growth hypthesis. In the primary stage, countries require import substitution policies, to develop intra-indistrial skills, economies of scale, and a trade base to a minimum level. The level in between is a complementary stage between import substitution and export promotion. Countries as India, Malaysia, Bangldesh in South east Asian region, followed import substitution for longer period until they believed to reach the minimum level, before these countries can move towards outward-oriented policies and introduced trade openness, and enjoyed the benefits of export-led-growth. For many countries mentioned above, steps taken in an earlier phase, have backfired. Therefore, the controversies to export led growth is as prevailent as the support toward the hypothesis. 3.4. Empirics on export led-growth and trade liberalization in the context of Bangladesh As one of Asias growing power house economy, The export-led growth hypothesis has been examined in the context of Bangladesh, in many empirical literaures. Among the newly conducted researches, conintegration analyses, vector error correction models, explained many important variables such as manufacturing exports, investment capital to the total exports and growth. This part will briefly review the studies conducted in the context of Bangladesh. Since its independence, Bangladesh embarked in a import substitution trade policy; following the ideology that a pro-agricultural society should be motivated to develop intra-industry to achieve economies of scale (Adelman, 1984). The mounting foreign debt, instable political condition, low productivity and growth, lower national income, did not allow the country to achieve its economic objective. Therefore, the country had to convert its inward looking policies, towards more outward looking policy, and adopted export promoting trade policy in 1982. Many structural adjustments were adviced by world bank and international monetary fund. The country went under furth

Henrik Ibsen Essay -- essays research papers

In the plays Ghosts, An Enemy of the People, and Wild ducks by Henrik Ibsen there are many similar themes, which become evident to the reader. A theme, which is consistant though out these plays, is the opposing values of the Ideal and the Real. The views of the idealist versus the realists make for many duels between the two personalities. The theme of idealism versus realism is also dealt with in the play The Wild Duck. Gregers Werle has avoided his father, whom he detests, by spending fifteen years in the family mining concern. Gregers is so unattractive in appearance that he has given up all hope of marrying and having a family. Instead he has become an idealist and goes about advocating and preaching a theme of truth and purity. He calls his mission the â€Å"claim of the ideal.† His father, Old Werle, has allegedly driven his sick wife to her death by carrying on love affairs in his own home. Once he had his serving girl, Gina, as his mistress. Arranging her marriage with Hialmar Ekdal, the son of his former partner, Werle also sets the couple up in the profession of photography. Hialmar is pleased with his marriage and believes that Gina’s child is his own daughter. Lieutenant Ekdal, Werle’s former partner, is now a broken old man. He does odd jobs for Werle. He is now living with Hialmar and Gina. Gregers Werle comes to Hialmar and explains the claim of the ideal and tries to make Hialmar see that his marriage is based on a lie. But rather than making Hialmar happy by understanding the true nature of his marriage, Gregers only succeeds in turning Halmar against his daughter, Hedvig. The daughter, in order to prove her love for her father who is rejecting her, takes a pistol and kills herself. The Wild Duck is a play in which reality versus idealism becomes a structural feature. Each scene illustrates this dualism. First Gregers confronts his father, a realist, and accuses him of a life built on lies and deception. The conflict between Gregers and his father reveals a lot about the two. It shows that Gregers is obsessed with the truth and in changing the wrongs of the past. This is shown when he attacks his father’s ability to allow Ekdal to be found solely guilty for crimes in which both men were involved. He also attacks his father for his ulterior motives in having Hialmar and Gina married, for the death of his wife, and for his intended marriage to ... ...appear. At the end of the play it is not clear what she will do.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  The first Act of the play Ghosts had many functions. It introduces the characters, illustrates the central problem of the play, and gives the reader the essential story line. Through this Ibsen carefully forewarns his audience of the themes he will develop in later acts. The protagonist, Mrs. Alving is shown to have somewhat of a dual personality. Although she reads controversial literature she continues to conform to the wishes of the church and community. She also speaks about her husband and his reckless life and how she hid the truth from her son, Oswald. Despite her husbands acts she wishes to hide these truths by creating an orphanage in his name.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Manders, is one of the characters who can be considered somewhat of a idealist. His ideals are not so righteous as those of Dr. Stockmann or Gregers Werle, however. Unlike the previous two plays this play has the most concrete message in that it definitely shows that Manders’ idealism is wrong and can no truly be realized. Manders’ idealism results in the destruction of the four major characters in this play.

Cultural Anthropology/Marriage, Reproduction, and Kinship Essay

Despite being banned both by law and mainstream Mormon doctrine, the practice is not only thriving in heavily Mormon Utah and other parts of the U.S. West but appears to be growing. Underage marriage, incest, emotional and physical abuse towards the wives, and child neglect are some of the few things that are quite common within polygamous communities. One simple way to help prevent these things is to keep marriage a bond between two people, not one man and ten wives or one woman with ten husbands, by enforcing the laws banning polygamy. Firstly, prosecutions of polygamists in modern times have been rare and tend to be restricted to cases where only underage marriage is practiced and rape or child abuse is suspected. Some of the brides are also forced into marriages with a close relative. (â€Å"Polygamy†) In 2007 Warren Jeffs, then the leader of the dissident 10,000-member Fundamentalist Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints (FLDS), was imprisoned in Utah after he was convicted of having been an accomplice to rape for his role in arranging marriages between adult male followers and underage girls. In April 2008, more than 460 children from an FLDS compound in Texas were removed by authorities from the custody of their parents after an anonymous tip to an abuse hotline. (â€Å"The Perils of Polygamy†) Another issue that had burst into the open with the high-profile trials of two brothers, David and John Daniel Kingston. One of John Daniel’s daughters, then 16, told police he had forced her to marry her uncle David–who already had 14 wives. When the girl fled home after four sexual encounters with her uncle, she testified, her father beat her with a belt. Amid a blaze of media attention, John Daniel pleaded no contest to child abuse charges in April, and is now serving a 28-week sentence. On July 9, David was sentenced to up to 10 years in prison for incest and unlawful sexual conduct with a minor. Also, in polygamous families, the man of the households all of the power, creating an environment prone to physical and emotional abuse. (â€Å"The Perils of Polygamy†) Carmen Thompson, now 41, spent 13 years as one of a Salt Lake City Mormon man’s eight wives, a harem that she says included the man’s sister and 14-year-old niece. She finally left him, taking their five children, after what she describes as years of beatings, poverty and emotional neglect. Last year, Thompson helped found Tapestry of Polygamy, the first-ever support group for women and children leaving polygamous marriages. Since the beginning of the year, the group has fielded over 300 calls from people seeking help. †In polygamous families, the patriarch has all the power,† says Thompson. †When there’s that kind of imbalance, abuse comes naturally.† Even supporters concede polygamy has its downsides. †The jealousy was very hard to take,† admits Elaine, Harmstons first wife, with whom he had been married over 30 years before taking his subsequent wives. Thompson, the anti-polygamy activist, says the result is a kind of brainwashing. †It’s incredibly emotionally degrading to lie in bed and hear your husband having sex with another woman on the other side of the wall,† she says. †But you’re taught that jealousy is a sin against God that you should fight. You learn to deny your emotions.† (†Canadian Court Rules That Polygamy Ban Is Constitutional†) Women in polygamous relationships face higher rates of domestic, physical and sexual abuse, died younger and are more prone to mental illnesses when being compared to monogamous marriages. Finally, besides underage marriages and abusive environment, the children in polygamous marriages suffer from different types of neglect. ( ¨The Perils of Polygamy ¨) Lillian Bowles was miserable growing up as one of 40 children in a cloistered polygamous community near Salt Lake City. Her father had eight wives and she saw him only once a week, on Saturday nights when it was her mother’s † turn.† †He had very little interaction with our lives, but an incredible amount of control,† says Bowles, 26. †We couldn’t even play at a friend’s house without getting his permission. You can talk about consenting adults, but the kids have no choice.† Finances are often a problem, too. It is hard to find, let alone afford, housing for a family that includes three or four wives and a dozen or more children. †We’d go dig food out of the dumpster behind the grocery store every week,† says Bowles. †There were lots o f other families who did the same.† Most families in polygamous situations are on welfare or food stamps. The men in these families cannot financially support all the women and children, and the women are generally not permitted the freedom to choose a career and work outside the family compound. On the other hand, as consenting adults, they should have the right to live however they want as long as they’re not breaking any other state or federal laws. ( ¨The Perils of Polygamy ¨) †We abhor abuse of any kind,,† says Mary Potter, formerly one of a policeman’s three wives and recent founder of a pro-polygamy women’s group, the Women’s Religious Liberties Union. †But abuse is also rampant in monogamous marriages. Why blame our religion?† Lastly, underage marriage, neglect, and abuse can happen in any family’s household and some polygamous families may not condone to any of those things, but there are too many families that do agree that it’s the patriarch’s decision of who marries who and who does what.

The Golden Lily Chapter 4

SONYA DIDN'T SAY ANYTHING about the mysterious encounter to the rest of the gang at Adrian's, so I respected her silence. Everyone else was too preoccupied with dinner and the experiments to notice much else. And once they conducted the second wave of experiments, even I grew too distracted to give much thought to the guy on the street. Sonya had said she wanted to see how Eddie and Dimitri responded to direct spirit. This was accomplished by her and Adrian focusing their magic at the dhampirs one at a time. â€Å"It's sort of like what we'd do if we were trying to heal them or make something grow,† Sonya explained to me. â€Å"Don't worry – this isn't going to make them supersized or anything. It's more like we're coating them with spirit magic. If Dimitri's got some lasting mark from when he was healed, I'd imagine it would react with our magic.† She and Adrian coordinated their timing and did Eddie first. Initially, there was nothing to see – just the two spirit users staring at Eddie. He looked uncomfortable under the scrutiny. Then, I saw a silvery shimmer run over his body. I stepped back, amazed – and unnerved – at seeing a physical manifestation of spirit. They repeated the process on Dimitri, with the same results. Apparently, on an unseen level, things were the same too. There was nothing notable about Dimitri's response. All of them took this in stride as part of the scientific process, but seeing that magic actually embrace the two men had creeped me out. As Eddie and I drove back to Amberwood that night, I found myself sitting as far away from him as I could in the car, as though residual magic might leak over and touch me. He chatted with me in our usual, friendly way, and I had to work hard to hide my feelings. Doing so made me feel guilty. This was Eddie, after all. My friend. The magic, even if it could've hurt me, was long since gone. A good night of sleep went a long ways to shake both my anxiety and guilt, leaving the magic a distant memory when I woke and prepared for classes the next day. Even though being at Amberwood was an assignment, I'd kind of come to love the elite school. I'd been homeschooled before this, and while my dad had certainly taught tough curriculum, he'd never gone beyond what he felt was necessary. Here, even if I surpassed what my classes were learning, there were plenty of teachers ready to encourage me to push farther. I hadn't been allowed to go to college, but this was a nice substitute. Before I could get on to it, I had to chaperone a training session with Eddie and Angeline. Even though he might want to avoid her, he wouldn't – not with Jill's safety on the line. Angeline was part of Jill's defense. I settled down in the grass with a cup of coffee, still wondering if he wasn't just imagining Angeline's interest. I'd recently acquired a one-cup coffee maker for my dorm room, and while it couldn't compare to a coffee shop, it had gotten me through a number of rough mornings. A yawn smothered my greeting as Jill sat down beside me. â€Å"Eddie never trains me anymore,† she said wistfully, as we watched the spectacle. Eddie was trying to patiently explain to Angeline that headbutting, while suitable in a bar brawl, was not always the best tactic with Strigoi. â€Å"I'm sure he will if he gets more time,† I said, though I wasn't sure at all. Now that he could admit his feelings for Jill to himself, he was nervous about touching her too much. That, and a chivalrous part of him didn't want Jill risking herself anyway. It was ironic because Jill's fierceness in wanting to learn self-defense (rare in a Moroi) was what had attracted him to her. â€Å"Angeline was recruited as protection. He's got to make sure she can handle it.† â€Å"I know. I just feel like everyone's trying to coddle me.† She frowned. â€Å"In PE, Micah won't let me do anything. After I had all that trouble starting out, he's now paranoid I'll hurt myself. I keep telling him I'm fine, that it was just the sun†¦ but well, he keeps jumping in. It's sweet†¦ but it drives me crazy sometimes.† â€Å"I've noticed it,† I admitted. I was in the same PE class. â€Å"I don't think that's why Eddie won't train you, though. He knows you can do it. He's proud that you can†¦ he just thinks that if he's doing his job, you shouldn't have to learn. Kind of weird logic.† â€Å"No, I get it.† Her earlier dismay shifted to approval as she turned back to the training session. â€Å"He's so dedicated†¦ and, well, good at what he does.† â€Å"The knee's an easy way to disable someone,† Eddie told Angeline. â€Å"Especially if you're caught without a weapon and have to – â€Å" â€Å"When are you going to teach me to stake or decapitate?† she interrupted, hands on her hips. â€Å"All the time, it's hit here, dodge this, blah, blah, blah. I need to practice killing Strigoi.† â€Å"No, you don't.† Eddie was the picture of patience and back in the determined, ready mode I knew so well. â€Å"You're not here to kill Strigoi. Maybe we can practice that at a later time, but right now, your priority is keeping mortal assassins away from Jill. That takes precedence over anything else, even our lives.† He glanced over at Jill for emphasis, and there was a flash of admiration in his eyes as he looked at her. â€Å"Seems like decapitation would kill Moroi just the same,† Angeline grumbled. â€Å"And besides, you did have a Strigoi problem last month.† Jill shifted uneasily beside me, and even Eddie paused. It was true – he had had to kill two Strigoi recently, back when Adrian's apartment had been Keith's. Lee Donahue had led the Strigoi to us. He was a Moroi who'd once been Strigoi. After he was returned to his natural state, Lee had wanted desperately to become a Strigoi again. He was the reason we'd learned that those restored by spirit seemed to have some Strigoi resistance. The two Strigoi he'd called to help him had tried to convert him but ended up killing him instead – a better fate than being undead, in my opinion. Those Strigoi had then turned on the rest of us and inadvertently revealed something unexpected and alarming (if not to them, then to me). My blood was inedible. They'd tried to drink from me and been unable to. With all the fallout from that night, no one among the Alchemists or Moroi had paid much attention to that small detail – and I was grateful. I was terrified that one of these days someone would think to put me under a microscope. â€Å"That was a fluke,† said Eddie at last. â€Å"Not one that's likely to happen again. Now watch the way my leg moves, and remember that a Moroi will probably be taller than you.† He did a demonstration, and I cast a quick look at Jill. Her face was unreadable. She never talked about Lee, whom she'd dated briefly. Micah had gone a long way to distract her on the romantic front, but having your last boyfriend want to become a bloodthirsty monster couldn't be an easy thing to get over. I had a feeling she was still in pain, even if she did a great job at hiding it. â€Å"You're too rigid,† Eddie told Angeline, after several attempts. She completely relaxed her body, almost like a marionette. â€Å"So, what? Like this?† He sighed. â€Å"No. You still need some tension.† Eddie moved behind her and attempted to guide her into position, showing her how to bend her knees and hold her arms. Angeline took the opportunity to lean back into him and brush her body suggestively against his. My eyes widened. Okay. Maybe he wasn't imagining things. â€Å"Hey!† He leapt backwards, a look of horror on his face. â€Å"Pay attention! You need to learn this.† Her expression was pure angelic innocence. â€Å"I am. I'm just trying to use your body to learn what to do with mine.† So help me, she batted her eyelashes. Eddie moved back even farther. I realized I should probably intervene, no matter what Eddie had said about handling his own problems. An even better savior came when the school's thirty-minute warning bell rang. I jumped up. â€Å"Hey, we should go if we want to get to breakfast in time. Right now.† Angeline gave me a suspicious look. â€Å"Don't you usually skip breakfast?† â€Å"Yeah, but I'm not the one putting in a hard morning's work. Besides, you still need to change and – wait, you're in your uniform?† I hadn't even noticed. Whenever Eddie and Jill trained, it was always in casual workout clothes – just like he wore now. Angeline had actually come out today in an Amberwood uniform, skirt and blouse, that were showing the wear and tear of a morning's battle. â€Å"Yeah, so?† She tucked in her blouse where it had started to come undone. The side of it was smudged with dirt. â€Å"You should change,† I said. â€Å"Nah. This is fine.† I wasn't so sure, but at least it was better than the jean shorts. Eddie did leave to put on his uniform and never came back for breakfast. I knew he liked his breakfasts, and since he was a guy, he could change clothes pretty quickly. My guess was he was sacrificing food to stay away from Angeline. I heard my name called as we entered the cafeteria and caught sight of Kristin Sawyer and Julia Cavendish waving to me. Aside from Trey, they were the two closest friends I'd made at Amberwood. I still had miles to go in ever being socially savvy, but those two had helped me a lot. And with all the supernatural intrigue my job involved, there was something comforting about being around people who were normal†¦ and, well, human. Even if I couldn't be fully honest with them. â€Å"Sydney, we have a fashion question for you,† Julia said. She tossed her blonde hair over one shoulder, her usual sign that what she was about to say was of utmost importance. â€Å"A fashion question for me?† I was almost ready to glance back and see if maybe there was another Sydney standing behind me. â€Å"I don't think anyone's ever asked that.† â€Å"You have really nice clothes,† Kristin insisted. She had dark skin and hair, as well as an athletic air that contrasted with Julia's more girly nature. â€Å"Too nice, actually. If my mom were ten years younger, cool, and had a lot more money, she'd dress just like you.† I didn't know if that was a compliment or not, but Julia didn't give me a chance to ruminate. â€Å"Tell her, Kris.† â€Å"Remember that counseling internship I wanted next semester? I scored an interview,† Kristin explained. â€Å"I'm trying to decide if I should wear pants and a blazer or a dress.† Ah, that explained why they were coming to me. An interview. Anything else they could have pulled from a fashion magazine. And while I could admit that I probably was the authority on such practical matters†¦ well, I was kind of disappointed that was what I'd been summoned for. â€Å"What color are they?† â€Å"The blazer's red, and the dress is navy.† I studied Kristin, taking in her features. On her wrist was a scar, the remnant of an insidious tattoo I'd helped remove, back when Keith's shady tattoo ring had run rampant. â€Å"Do the dress. Wait†¦ is it a dress you'd wear to church or to a nightclub?† â€Å"Church,† she said, not sounding happy about it. â€Å"Dress for sure then,† I said. Kristin flashed a triumphant look at Julia. â€Å"See? I told you that's what she'd say.† Julia looked doubtful. â€Å"The blazer's more fun. It's bright red.† â€Å"Yeah, but ‘fun' isn't usually what you want to portray at an interview,† I pointed out. It was hard to keep a straight face with their banter. â€Å"At least not for this kind of job.† Julia still didn't seem convinced, but she also didn't try to talk Kristin out of my sound fashion advice. A few moments later, Julia perked up. â€Å"Hey, is it true Trey set you up with some guy?† â€Å"I†¦ what? No. Where'd you hear that?† Like I had to ask. She'd undoubtedly heard it from Trey himself. â€Å"Trey said he'd talked to you about it,† said Kristin. â€Å"How this guy's perfect for you.† â€Å"It's a great idea, Syd,† said Julia, face as serious as if we were discussing a life or death matter. â€Å"It'd be good for you. I mean, since school started, I've gone out with†¦Ã¢â‚¬  She paused and silently counted out names on her fingers. â€Å"†¦ four guys. You know how many you've gone out with?† She held up a fist. â€Å"That many.† â€Å"I don't need to go out with anyone,† I argued. â€Å"I have enough complications already. I'm pretty sure that would add more.† â€Å"What complications?† laughed Kristin. â€Å"Your awesome grades, killer body, and perfect hair? I mean, okay, your family's a little out there, but come on, everyone has time for a date now and then – or lots, in Julia's case.† â€Å"Hey,† said Julia, though she didn't deny the charge. Kristin pushed forward, making me think she was more suited to a legal internship than a counseling one. â€Å"Skip homework for once. Give this guy a shot, and we can all go out together sometime. It'd be fun.† I gave them a forced smile and murmured something noncommittal. Everyone has time for a date now and then. Everyone but me, of course. I felt a surprising pang of longing, not for a date but just for social interaction. Kristin and Julia went out a lot with a larger group of friends and love interests and often invited me on their outings. They thought my reticence was because of homework or, perhaps, no suitable guy to go with me. I wished it were that simple, and suddenly, it was as though there was a huge chasm separating me from Kristin and Julia. I was their friend, and they had welcomed me to every part of their lives. Meanwhile, I was full of secrets and half truths. Part of me wished I could be open with them and able to confide all the woes of my Alchemist life. Heck, part of me just wished I really could go on one of these outings and let go of my duties for a night. It would never work, of course. We'd be out at a movie, and I'd probably get texted to come cover up a Strigoi slaying. This mood wasn't uncommon for me, and it began lightening as I started my school day. I fell into the rhythm of my schedule, comfortable in its familiarity. Teachers always assigned the most work over weekends, and I was pleased to be able to turn in all that I'd done on my plane rides. Unfortunately, my last class of the day derailed all the progress of my mood. Actually, class wasn't the right word. It was an independent study I had with my history teacher, Ms. Terwilliger. Ms. Terwilliger had recently revealed herself to be a magic user, a witch of sorts or whatever those people referred to themselves as. Alchemists had heard rumors of them, but it was nothing we had a lot of experience with or facts about. To our knowledge, only Moroi wielded magic. We utilized it in our lily tattoos – which had trace amounts of vampire blood – but the thought of humans producing it in the same way was crazy and twisted. That was why it was such a surprise when Ms. Terwilliger not only revealed herself to me last month but also ended up kind of tricking me into wielding a spell. It had left me shocked and even feeling dirty. Magic was not for humans to use. We had no right to manipulate the world like that; it was a hundred times worse than what Sonya had done to the red lily on the street. Ms. Terwilliger insisted I had a natural affinity for magic and had offered to train me. Why she wanted this, exactly, I wasn't sure. She'd gone on and on about the potential I had, but I could hardly believe she'd want to train me without a reason of her own. I hadn't figured out what that might be, but it didn't matter. I'd refused her offer. So, she'd found a workaround. â€Å"Miss Melbourne, how much longer do you think you'll be on the Kimball book?† she called from her desk. Trey had picked up â€Å"Melbourne† from her, but unlike him, she seemed to constantly forget that wasn't my actual name. She was in her forties, with mousy brown hair and a perpetually cunning glint in her eyes. I looked up from my work, forcing politeness. â€Å"Two more days. Three at most.† â€Å"Make sure to translate all three of the sleep of spells,† she said. â€Å"Each has its own nuances.† â€Å"There are four sleep spells in this book,† I corrected. â€Å"Are there?† she asked innocently. â€Å"I'm glad to see they're making an impression.† I hid a scowl. Having me copy and translate spell books for research was how she taught me. I couldn't help but learn the texts as I read them. I hated that I'd been ensnared, but it was too late in the school year to transfer out. Besides, I could hardly complain to the administration that I was being forced to learn magic. So, I dutifully copied her spell books and spoke as little as possible during our time together. Meanwhile, I simmered with resentment. She was well aware of my discomfort but made no attempts to alleviate the tension, leaving us in a stalemate. Only one thing brightened those sessions. â€Å"Look at that. It's been nearly two hours since my last cappuccino. It's a wonder I can function. Would you be kind enough to run to Spencer's? That should finish us out for the day.† The last bell had rung fifteen minutes ago, but I'd been putting in some overtime. I was already closing the spell book before she finished speaking. When I'd begun as her assistant, I'd resented the constant errands. Now, I looked forward to the escape. Not to mention my own caffeine fix. When I reached the coffee shop, I found Trey was just starting his shift, which was great – not just because he was a friendly face, but because it meant discounts. He began making my order before I even placed it since he knew the drill by now. Another barista offered to help, and Trey gave him meticulous instructions on what to do. â€Å"Skinny vanilla latte,† said Trey, grabbing the caramel for Ms. Terwilliger's cappuccino. â€Å"That's sugar-free syrup and skim. Don't mess it up. She can sniff out sugar and 2% milk a mile away.† I suppressed a smile. Maybe I couldn't reveal Alchemist secrets to my friends, but it was nice to know they at least knew my coffee preferences backwards and forwards. The other barista, who looked to be our age, gave Trey a droll look. â€Å"I'm well aware of what skinny means.† â€Å"Nice attention to detail,† I teased Trey. â€Å"I didn't know you cared.† â€Å"Hey, I live to serve,† he said. â€Å"Besides, I need your help tonight with that lab write-up from chem. You always find things I miss.† â€Å"It's due tomorrow,† I chastised. â€Å"You had two weeks. I'm guessing you didn't get much done in your cheerleader study session.† â€Å"Yeah, yeah. Will you help me out? I'll even go to your campus.† â€Å"I'll be up late with a study group – a real one.† The opposite sex was banned from our dorms after a certain hour. â€Å"I could meet you on Central Campus afterward if you want.† â€Å"How many campuses does your school have?† asked the other barista, setting down my latte. â€Å"Three.† I reached eagerly for the coffee. â€Å"Like Gaul.† â€Å"Like what?† asked Trey. â€Å"Sorry,† I said. â€Å"Latin joke.† â€Å"Omnia Gallia in tres partes divisa est,† said the barista. I jerked my head up. Not much could have distracted me from coffee, but hearing Julius Caesar quoted at Spencer's certainly did. â€Å"You know Latin?† I asked. â€Å"Sure,† he said. â€Å"Who doesn't?† Trey rolled his eyes. â€Å"Only the rest of the world,† he muttered. â€Å"Especially classical Latin,† continued the barista. â€Å"I mean, it's pretty remedial compared to Medieval Latin.† â€Å"Obviously,† I said. â€Å"Everyone knows that. All the rules became chaotic in the post-Empire decentralization.† He nodded agreement. â€Å"Although, if you compare it to the Romance languages, the rules start to make sense when you read them as part of the larger picture of the language's evolution.† â€Å"This,† interrupted Trey, â€Å"is the most messed-up thing I've ever seen. And the most beautiful. Sydney, this is Brayden. Brayden, Sydney.† Trey rarely used my first name, so that was weird, but not nearly as weird as the exaggerated wink he gave me. I shook Brayden's hand. â€Å"Nice to meet you.† â€Å"You too,† he said. â€Å"You're a Classics fan, huh?† He paused, giving me a long, considering look. â€Å"Did you see the Park Theatre Group's production of Antony and Cleopatra this summer?† â€Å"No. Didn't even know they performed it.† I suddenly felt kind of lame for not having known that, as though I should be up on all arts and culture events in the greater Palm Springs area. I added by way of explanation, â€Å"I only moved here a month ago.† â€Å"I think they have a couple performances left in the season.† Brayden hesitated once more. â€Å"I'd see it again if you wanted to go. Though I'll warn you – it's one of those reinterpreted Shakespeare productions. Modern clothes.† â€Å"I don't mind. That kind of reinterpretation is what makes Shakespeare timeless.† The words rolled automatically off my lips. As they did, I suddenly had one of those epiphany moments where I realized there was more going on than I'd initially thought. I replayed Brayden's words. Between that and Trey's enormous grin, I soon had a startling realization. This was the guy Trey had been telling me about. My â€Å"soul mate.† And he was asking me out. â€Å"This is a great idea,† said Trey. â€Å"You kids should totally go see that play. Make a whole day of it. Grab some dinner and hang out at the library or whatever it is you do for fun.† Brayden met my eyes. His were hazel, almost like Eddie's but with a little green. Not as much green as Adrian's, of course. No one's eyes were that amazingly green. Brayden's brown hair occasionally picked up glints of gold in the light and was cut in a no-nonsense way that showed off the angles of his cheekbones. I had to admit, he was pretty cute. â€Å"They perform Thursday through Sunday,† he said. â€Å"I've got a debate tournament over the weekend†¦ could you do it Thursday night?† â€Å"I†¦Ã¢â‚¬  Could I? There was nothing planned, so far as I knew. About twice a week, I took Jill to the home of Clarence Donahue, an old Moroi who had a feeder. Thursday wasn't a scheduled feeding night, though, and technically I wasn't obligated to go to experiment nights. â€Å"Of course she's free,† Trey jumped in before I could even answer. â€Å"Right, Sydney?† â€Å"Yes,† I said, shooting him a look. â€Å"I'm free.† Brayden smiled. I smiled back. Nervous silence fell. He seemed as unsure as I was about how to proceed. I would have thought it was cute, if I wasn't so worried that I looked ridiculous. Trey elbowed him sharply. â€Å"This is the part where you ask for her number.† Brayden nodded, though he didn't look like he appreciated the elbowing. â€Å"Right, right.† He pulled a cell phone out of his pocket. â€Å"Is it Sydney with a y or i?† Trey rolled his eyes. â€Å"What? I'm guessing the former, but as naming conventions become increasingly untraditional, you never know. I just want to get it right in my phone.† â€Å"I would have done the same thing,† I agreed. I then told him my phone number. He looked up and smiled at me. â€Å"Great. I'm looking forward to it.† â€Å"Me too,† I said, and actually meant it. I left Spencer's in a daze. I had a date. How on earth did I have a date? Trey hurried out to me a few moments later, catching me as I was unlocking my car. He still wore his barista apron. â€Å"Well?† he asked. â€Å"Was I right, or was I right?† â€Å"About what?† I asked, though I had a feeling I knew what was coming. â€Å"About Brayden being your soul mate.† â€Å"I told you – â€Å" â€Å"I know, I know. You don't believe in soul mates. Still,† he grinned, â€Å"if that guy isn't perfect for you, then I don't know who is.† â€Å"Well, we'll see.† I balanced Ms. Terwilliger's cup on top of the car, so I could drink from my own. â€Å"Of course, he doesn't like modern Shakespearean interpretations, so that might be a deal breaker.† Trey stared at me in disbelief. â€Å"Seriously?† â€Å"No,† I said, giving him a look. â€Å"I'm kidding. Well, maybe.† The latte Brayden had made me was pretty good, so I was willing to give him the benefit of a doubt on the Shakespeare thing. â€Å"Why do you care so much about my romantic life anyway?† Trey shrugged and stuffed his hands into his pockets. Already, beads of sweat were forming on his tanned skin from the late afternoon sun. â€Å"I don't know. I guess I feel like I owe you for everything that went down with the tattoos. That and all your homework help.† â€Å"You don't really need my help with that. And the tattoos†¦Ã¢â‚¬  I frowned, as an image of Keith beating on the glass flashed through my mind. Keith's vampire blood ring had resulted in high-inducing tattoos that had wreaked havoc on Amberwood. Trey, of course, didn't know about my personal interest in the matter. He just knew I'd gotten rid of those who were using the tattoos to unfair advantage in sports. â€Å"I did it because it was the right thing to do.† That made him smile. â€Å"Of course. Still, it's saved me a lot of grief with my dad.† â€Å"I should hope so. You don't have any competition on the team now. What more could your dad want?† â€Å"Oh, there's always something else he thinks I could be the best at. It's not just football.† Trey had hinted at that before. â€Å"I know what that's like,† I said, thinking of my own father. A moment of silence fell between us. â€Å"It doesn't help that my perfect cousin's coming into town soon,† he said finally. â€Å"Makes everything I do look completely lame. You got a cousin like that?† â€Å"Er, not really.† Most of my cousins were on my mom's side, and my dad tended to shy away from her family. â€Å"You probably are the perfect cousin,† Trey grumbled. â€Å"Anyway, yeah, there're always these expectations in the family†¦ always these tests. Football's given me some respectability for now.† He winked at me. â€Å"That and my awesome chem grade.† That last comment wasn't lost on me. â€Å"Fine. I'll text you when I get back tonight. We'll make it happen.† â€Å"Thanks. And I'll give Brayden a talking-to so he doesn't try anything on Thursday.† My mind was still full of Latin and Shakespeare. â€Å"Try what?† Trey shook his head. â€Å"Honestly, Melbourne, I don't know how you've survived this long in the world without me.† â€Å"Oh,† I said, blushing. â€Å"That.† Great. Now I had something else to worry about. Trey scoffed. â€Å"Between you and me, Brayden's probably the last guy in the world you have to worry about. I think he's as clueless as you are. If I didn't care about your virtue so much, I'd actually probably give him a lecture on how to try something.† â€Å"Well, thanks for keeping my best interests at heart,† I said dryly. â€Å"I always wanted a brother to watch out for me.† He studied me curiously. â€Å"Don't you have, like, three brothers?† Oh no. â€Å"Er, I meant figuratively.† I tried not to panic. I rarely slipped up on our background story. Eddie, Adrian, and Keith had all been passed off as my brothers at some point. â€Å"None of them are really that concerned about my dating life. What I'm concerned about, though, is getting into air conditioning.† I opened my car door, and a wave of heat rolled out. â€Å"I'll talk to you tonight and help you with the lab.† Trey nodded, looking like he wanted to get back inside as well. â€Å"And I'll help you if you have any more questions about dating.† I hoped my scathing look told him my opinion on that, but once he was gone and I was blasting the car's air conditioning, my arrogance faded. Anxiety took its place. The question I'd asked myself earlier repeated in my head. How on earth was I going to get through this date alive?